破坏CPEC的尝试又一次失败

  • 時間:   2020-05-31      
  • 作者:   巴铁泽米尔      
  • 來源:   澳门法治报     
  • 瀏覽人數:  2337

美国在巴基斯坦加紧了对中国的战争。目标是破坏中巴石油公司,在中国和巴基斯坦之间制造误会。然而,尽管美国和印度发动了密集袭击,中巴关系却没有改变。我们关系的性质和深度是别人无法理解的。我们是“钢铁兄弟”,这是中巴关系的特殊称呼。

 

负责南亚和中亚事务的助理国务卿艾丽斯·威尔斯(Alice Wells)被委派执行这项任务,并多次发表过去的讽刺言论。巴基斯坦前大使侯赛因·哈卡尼(Hussain Haqqani)是一位新成员,他在巴基斯坦以反巴基斯坦情绪闻名。他断断续续地损害巴基斯坦的国家利益。根据他最近于2020518日发表在《外交官》上的一篇文章:

 

1)由于赞助者对“建设过程中的利益”的错误表述,324.6亿卢比的超额建设成本被允许分配给两家中国煤炭工厂。

 

根据一位消息人士提供的资料,高铁在关税请愿书中明确规定,其建设期约为27个月,而不是2014年前期关税中所假设的48个月。该公司之所以提出申请,是因为2014年前期费率的规定本身明确,施工期间的利息应根据NEPRA预先确定的支付计划而不是实际支付计划计算。NEPRA根据2014年预付关税的规定批准了施工期利息。因此,高铁方面从未就施工期或施工期间的利息作出过任何虚假陈述。

 

2)在建设期内,IDC不因实际支出比例的变化而调整。

 

根据2014NEPRA预付关税的上述条款,IDC不应根据项目发起人应获得的早期调试的实际和全部利益进行调整。

 

在这里,我们认为NEPRA48个月的施工期定为标准,是基于其调查,是世界平均水平的正常做法。另外,27-29个月的竣工期创造了纪录,这甚至比中国同规模项目的工期还要短。遗憾的是,没有人在意到赞助人所做的巨大努力,在融资结束前,巨大的风险初始担保、过桥贷款几乎覆盖了项目总成本的60%,超过30万工人(他们甚至在一开始被认为是中国囚犯)每周24/7不间断地工作,一些关键材料和设备,用于减少项目的时间和成本。他们也不在乎它的任务是减少巴基斯坦主要负荷中心超过10个小时的停电,振兴巴基斯坦工业。为确定早期调试的经济影响,应注意,后期调试的违约赔偿金通常由CPPA-G根据每月每千瓦2.5美元计算。考虑到CPPA-G单方面将该费率应用于所有电力项目,尽管存在可用性系数,并且鉴于高铁是可用性系数最高的项目之一,因此,由于早期试运行,巴基斯坦经济的经济效益可以说约为1亿美元(2.5 x 1243美元,517千瓦x 21个月x 1.5)的最低限度。国家能否最大限度地利用这种电力,取决于政府的经济政策。

 

3)就Sahiwal工厂而言,在整个项目生命周期30年内,每年可获得2740万美元的超额股本回报率(ROE)。

 

NEPRA用批准的高于实际IDC的估算,作为计算2740万美元年度超额ROE的基础。

 

显然,这个差距是基于这样一个理解,即在高铁项目上,NEPRA允许超额的项目成本为131.6亿里亚尔,其中大部分与IDC有关。据一位消息人士透露,虽然该公司实际节省了IDC的费用,但其项目总成本几乎等于NEPRA批准的项目成本,委员会的报告歪曲了与高铁实际项目成本相关的财务数字。据了解,委员会报告只考虑了资产负债表中“不动产、厂房和设备”项下资本化的固定资产,而完全忽略了资产负债表其他项下资本化的土地、中信保费用、融资费用和收费、关税和税费等相关费用,这些费用相当于成本约200亿卢比。仅此一点就印证了委员会报告中针对高铁所作的错误分析。

 

4)考虑到卢比对美元的年贬值率为6%,估计的超额支付达到了2910.4亿卢比(约18亿美元)。

 

当确定NEPRA批准的实际项目成本不超过上述高铁所产生的项目成本时,2910.4亿卢比的超额付款索赔不再有效。

 

此外,非常遗憾的是,每当政府官员认为有必要为自己的主张辩护时,他们都会作出不切实际的假设,或将继续接受巴基斯坦通过使用薄弱的长期经济假设而处于摇摇欲坠的状态。在这种情况下,委员会报告假定卢比将从目前的每美元150-160卢比贬值到2046年的每美元900卢比!根据这样的假设,该公司将这一数字从1230亿卢比放大至2910亿卢比。

 

HSR和其他IPPS一样,正面临着一系列问题,这些问题加剧了投资者的风险。IPPS因燃料价格调整纠纷、运营和维护成本赤字、国家能源政策局对政府机构(巴基斯坦铁路、卡西姆港管理局、海关等)付款的不批准、对IPPS付款的过度延迟、卢比贬值造成的巨大损失而遭受损失,这些问题严重侵蚀了电力项目的盈利潜力,破坏了巴基斯坦政府在电力政策和电价文件中承诺的保障。

 

无论媒体对独立发电商的普遍审判的动机是什么,都必须提醒人们,资本市场永远不会原谅这种错误。外国投资者认为巴基斯坦是一个高风险、易破碎的投资国家。中国通过中国石油工程建设有限公司(CPEC)承诺在巴基斯坦投资数十亿美元的行动,来试图纠正这一形象;这是向不愿在巴基斯坦投资或不愿为巴基斯坦发展做出贡献的西方项目金融家发出的闭门电话。

 

如果独立发电商能够宽宏大量地原谅政府的愚蠢,可能会找到一些短暂的喘息机会。过去2-3年的电力成本急剧上升,主要原因是燃料价格上涨、利率上升、汇率贬值、迪斯科舞厅向消费者收取的电力不足、输电损耗和成本高、政府运营的高效率和高成本的发电厂持续存在,而非IPP的因素。

 

尽管巴基斯坦电力部门因政府效率低下而面临上述严重问题,但媒体的审判已倾向于对独立发电商进行诽谤。因此,必须弄清楚是谁的错,而不是通过对 ipps 进行媒体审判来威胁他们。这样做,巴基斯坦只会失去投资者信心,这次可能会使投资商永久性地失去信心。

 

尽管美国和印度发动了密集袭击,但中巴关系没有改变。我们关系的性质和深度是别人无法理解的。我们是“钢铁兄弟”,这是中巴关系的一个独特称呼。

 

(泽米尔﹒阿万教授:汉学家(前外交官),编辑,分析员,巴基斯坦伊斯兰堡国立科技大学中国与全球化中心(CCG)非常驻研究员。)

 

消息来源:OneWorldGlobalThinkTank

                           

The US hasintensified its war against China in Pakistan. The target is to derail CPEC andcreate misunderstandings between China and Pakistan. Despite the intensiveattacks by the US or India, however, the relations between China and Pakistanare unchanged. The nature and depth of our relationships are beyond theunderstanding of others. We are “Iron Brothers,” a unique term used forChina-Pakistan relations.


AssistantSecretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Alice Wells was deputedfor this task and shed past sarcastic remarks on several occasions. A newaddition is Ex-Pakistani Ambassador Hussain Haqqani, who is known well inPakistan for his anti-Pakistan sentiments. He has been harming Pakistan’snational interests on and off. According to one of his recent articles datedMay 18th, 2020, in The Diplomat:

 

(i) Excess set-upcosts of Rs. 32.46 billion was allowed to the two coal-based Chinese plants dueto misrepresentation by sponsors regarding the ‘Interest During Construction’(IDC).

 

According to asource, HSR clearly provided in the tariff petition that its constructionperiod was around 27 months instead of 48 months, as assumed in the UpfrontTariff 2014. The company applied for this because the provisions of the UpfrontTariff 2014 itself clearly provided that interest during construction wassupposed to be calculated based on a pre-defined disbursement plan by NEPRAinstead of actual disbursement plan. NEPRA approved interest duringconstruction based on the provisions of Upfront Tariff 2014. Therefore, therewas no misrepresentation ever made from HSR’s side concerning either theconstruction period or interest during construction.

 

(ii) IDC shall notbe adjusted for any variation on account of actual expenditure percentageduring the construction period.

 

As per the clauseabove of NEPRA Upfront Tariff 2014, IDC was never supposed to be adjusted basedon the actual and entire benefit of early commissioning that was to accrue tothe project sponsors.

 

Here we believethat NEPRA set the 48-month construction period as standard based on itsinvestigation that the worldwide average level is normal practice. Furthermore,the 27-29-month completion period created the record, which was even shorterthan the same size project in China. Unfortunately, nobody cares about the hugeeffort done by the sponsor, the huge risky initial sponsored guaranteed bridgeloans which cover almost 60% of total project cost involved before financingclosed, the more than 3,000 thousand workers continually working 24/7 each week(who were even considered as Chinese prisoners in the beginning by the media),or some key material and equipment that was used to reduce the time and cost ofthe project. They also don't care that its mission was to diminish the more than10 hours of blackouts in the major load centers of the country and revivePakistani industries. To determine the economic impact of early commissioning,it may be noted that liquidated damages for late commissioning are typicallycalculated by CPPA-G based on USD 2.5 per kW per month. Considering such a rateis unilaterally applied to all power projects by CPPA-G despite theiravailability factor and given that HSR has amongst the highest availabilityfactor, economic benefits to the economy of Pakistan due to early commissioningcan be said to be around USD 100 million (USD 2.5 x 1,243,517 kW x 21 months x1.5) as a bare minimum. Whether the country can maximize the benefits of suchavailability of power is up to the economic policies of the government.

 

(ii) Entitlementof an excess Return on Equity (ROE) of $27.4 million annually, over the entireproject life of 30 years in the case of the Sahiwal plant.

 

A higher imputedIDC approved by NEPRA in contrast to actual IDC has been used as the basis forcalculating annual excess ROE of USD 27.4 million.

 

Apparently, thisgap has been based on the understanding that excess project cost has beenallowed by NEPRA for HSR of Rs. 13.16 billion, the majority of which relates toIDC. According to a source, although the company actually saved on account ofIDC, its overall project cost was almost equal to the project cost approved byNEPRA, and the Committee Report misrepresented the financial numbers related toactual project cost of HSR. It has been told that the Committee Report onlyconsidered fixed assets capitalized under the “property, plant, and equipment”head of the balance sheet while completely ignoring the costs related to land,Sinosure fee, financing fees and charges, customs duties and taxes, etc. capitalizedin other heads of the balance sheet, which amounts to around Rs. 20 billion incost. This alone seals the false analysis prepared against HSR in the CommitteeReport.

 

(iii) Theestimated excess payment, keeping in mind the 6 percent annual rupee depreciationagainst the dollar, works out to a whopping Rs—291.04 billion (approximately$1.8 billion).

 

The claim ofexcess payment of Rs. 291.04 billion does not hold anymore when it isestablished that the actual project cost approved by NEPRA is not more than theproject cost incurred by HSR, as explained above.

 

Moreover, it ishighly unfortunate that whenever the government officials feel necessary tojustify their claims, they make unrealistic assumptions or continue to acceptthat Pakistan will continue to remain a faltering state by using weak long-termeconomic assumptions. In this case, the Committee Report has assumed that therupee will depreciate from the current Rs. 150-160 per USD to a whopping Rs.900 per USD in 2046! By way of such an assumption, the company has magnifiedthe number from Rs. 123 billion to Rs. 291 billion.

 

HSR, amongst otherIPPs, is facing a plethora of issues that escalate the risks for the investor.IPPs suffer on account of fuel price adjustment disputes, O&M cost deficit,disapprovals by NEPRA on account of payments made to government institutions(Pakistan Railways, Port Qasim Authority, Customs Office, etc.), excessivedelays in payments to IPPs, massive loss due to devaluation of rupee, etc. Suchissues seriously erode the earning potential of power projects and underminethe guarantees promised by the government of Pakistan in power policies andtariff documents.

 

Whatever themotive is of the prevailing media trial against independent power producers, itmust be reminded that capital markets never forgive such mistakes. Foreigninvestors consider Pakistan as a high-risk and broken country to invest in.China has sought to correct this image by promising to invest billions ofdollars in Pakistan through CPEC; this is a shut-up call to Western projectfinanciers who are unwilling to invest in Pakistan or contribute towards itsdevelopment.

 

There may be someshort-term respite found if the independent power producers are generous enoughto forgive the government for their foolishness. Electricity cost in the last2-3 years has risen sharply, primarily due to a higher fuel price, higherinterest rate, exchange rate devaluation, under collection by DISCOs fromconsumers, high transmission losses and cost, and continuance of highlyinefficient and expensive GENCOs operated by the government rather than factorsattributable to IPPs.

 

Despite the abovegrave issues engulfing the power sector of Pakistan on account of thegovernment’s inefficiencies, the media trial has been skewed towards maligningthe IPPs. Therefore, it must be made clear who is at fault rather thanstrong-arming IPPs by conducting a media trial of them. Pakistan will only loseinvestor confidence and may do so rather permanently this time.

 

Despite theintensive attacks by the US or India, the relations between China and Pakistanare unchanged. The nature and depth of our relationships are beyond theunderstanding of others. We are “Iron Brothers,” a unique term used forChina-Pakistan relations.


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关键字:要聞、時政、國際

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